john bougearel's Page

Longtime readers know that investor and consumer confidence tends to swoon together. That is equities sell off into Consumer Confidence (CC) reports and then rally once the selling pressure from the low Consumer Confidence number wears off. This last occurred on the August Consumer Confidence report. Equities put a short term low in on that day, rallied for a week and then stock prices collapsed on Sept 2. What happened, equities were supposed to rally off that model, right? Simply this: Investo… Continue

Originally posted Monday Oct 27

And then there were four! Let’s just hope that by the time all is said and done there aren’t ten little Indians in this game, or we will all be dead in the short run instead of the long run. Perhaps the “Three Little Indian” pattern is best considered a potential reversal pattern in bull markets. In really bad bear markets, expect to see four or more Indians show up on the scene.
Four Little Indians Pattern on SP 500 Signaling Bottom to 2008 Bear Market… Continue

Last week, on Oct 15, I wrote on my blog here that the 27% two day rally in the SP500 could have immediate further crash implications based on the initial 50% 1929 crash into Nov 13 1929. I was hoping against hope that we would begin to deviate from that crash map model. http://yorbatv.ning.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2014856%3ABlogPost%3A10456

Unfortunately, that has not been the case as yet. Also on Oct 15, I observed that the Bear gap down high on Tuesday Oct 15 was an important signal that th… Continue

Technically, the tier of support around 73- 78 broke last week. When crude oil plowed through $78 last week, it plowed through the 50% retrace to the 2007 yr low and the 2006 year high. When it plowed through
$73-$74 last week, it plowed through the 4 year moving average and trend support from Nov 2001. Market participants will want to note that crude oil tends to find intermediate lows around the week of Nov 11. Seasonally, this will be about the earliest time to expect an intermediate term low… Continue

The broad premise of this negative signal is that despite the trillions of capital injections into our global financial system, we are confronted with the reality that deflationary forces are trumping the coordinated efforts of central bankers and treasuries around the world.

The implication is that if the Nov 20 07 low is no good a second time around, then the Sept 11 08 low at 736 is no good. Moreover, the wave ratio extensions at 691 and 639 it signals indicates that gold will round trip the… Continue