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Catching a Falling Commodity Knife

The April collapse in gold has drawn attention to the two-year decline in the commodity sector. Since gold’s collapse both it and crude oil have experienced a strong rally over the last two weeks. Many want to know if commodities have bottomed.Taking a look at the Continuous Commodity index (CCI) we can see that it has breached the 61.8% retracement of the June-September advance opening the door for a return to the low near 500. The trend momentum indicator, ADX, confirms the downtrend.…See More

May 7

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Ed Carlson posted a blog post

4 year Cycle

Prior to last week’s detour to discuss the gold market my April commentaries have been about Lindsay’s long cycle and how that matches what we all normally think of as secular bull and bear markets. The second commentary in this series discussed finding the high in the current long cycle and the conclusion was that a high should be found between March and September of this year. Before going any further with Lindsay I want to…See More

Apr 22

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Ed Carlson posted a blog post

Long Cycles Part II

In last week’s Commentary I showed how Lindsay’s long cycle divided the historical chart of the Dow into what we normally refer to as secular bull and bear markets and noted how closely related each cycle was in its time duration. I also pointed out how the cycle lows Lindsay identified were somewhat different than what other…See More

Apr 9

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Apr 2

Ed Carlson posted a blog post

Chances are you have seen a long-term chart of the Dow annotated as the chart below has been. The red hash marks designate secular bull and bear markets. But if you look closely, you may notice one …

Chances are you have seen a long-term chart of the Dow annotated as the chart below has been. The red hash marks designate secular bull and bear markets. But if you look closely, you may notice one significant difference from similar charts; the first secular market begins in 1921 and not in 1932 as is often shown.Why the low in 1921? Why is the secondary low of March 2003 used and not the nominal low in October 2002? The dates shown on this chart are the lows of, what George Lindsay called,…See More

Apr 2

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Ed Carlson posted a blog post

Sentiment

Sentiment isn’t typically used so much for timing the equity market as for gauging the overall mood of the market. When the mood of market participants is too bearish, we know to start using other methods if we want to time the bottom of the market. If sentiment is too bullish, we start looking for a top.Sentiment is a popular and…See More

Mar 22

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Ed Carlson posted a blog post

Mining deep for gold

Gold has been moving essentially sideways for more than a year since printing a high in August/September 2011. With last week’s drop to below the lows of last December/ January many investors must be asking ‘where is the bottom in gold?’Since 1980 gold has seen a pattern of important lows every 3-5 years. Typically, a long 5-year span between lows is shortened during the following cycle and a short 3-year span reverts back to a four or five year cycle. While the lows of last summer would have…See More

Feb 15

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"Next week, speaking to the CFA societies in Detroit, Ann Arbor, Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids http://tinyurl.com/aau3w3l"

Nov 29, 2012

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Ed Carlson posted a blog post

Holiday Rally Looks to be a Turkey

Holiday Rally Looks to be a Turkey A rally into the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday is standard fare for the equity markets as it is for most holiday-shortened weeks. There should be plenty of meat for the bulls; unfortunately, it looks to be a bull-trap.Leading cyclical groups such as semiconductors appear to be setting up for a rally. The SOX has broken its downtrend with the rally on November 1. A rising bandwidth indicator (BWI) confirms the rally by its advance and signals a non-confirmation of…See More

Nov 14, 2012

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Ed Carlson posted a blog post

Lindsay's Standard Time Spans

The Standard Time SpansEd Carlson, CMT One of the great gifts left to us by twentieth-century technician, George Lindsay, was his identification and categorization of what he called the standard time spans. He traced these time spans back to 1798 and found they occurred over and over again throughout time. They became an integral part of his methodology. Those time spans play an important role in telling us that the current bull market is about to end (or has ended already).The current basic…See More

Sep 30, 2012

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Ed Carlson posted a blog post

Three Peaks/Domed House signals end to bull market next week

Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern signals an end to the bull marketEven prior to the new high on 9/11/12, a follower of George Lindsay’s Three Peaks and a Domed House model might have been wondering ‘could the 3PDh forecast be incorrect?’ What would make it incorrect? The three peaks, as labeled in the chart below, meet the requirement of a time span of 6-10 months between peaks one and three. Actually, the distance is not quite six months but is greater than five months. This is seen in…See More

Sep 12, 2012

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Ed Carlson and Jeffery Hirsch are now friends