Market Rally? Gold thereafter? US dollar?

[Gabriel]

Hi All,

I would really need some guidance on this one. apparantly there are some suggestions of the market rallying sometime next week. I got a couple of calls with me still drowning.

The thing is I have shorted gold a few days ago. Now my question is will gold still be deflating if the Dow goes up next week? How will the US dollar react as perhaps risk sets in again and carry trade comes back into play?

Wat sort of projections should we be looking at the extent of the US dollar rally?

Really appreciate any advice here.

[Michael Yorba]

Hi Gabriel:
Good Question. I would like to suggest you contact the guests we have had on the show this week. We have been discussing those issues all week. You can use the search field on the social network.
As far as the carry trades. My leverage is at 1 to 1 now ...just waiting for the USD to turn. I have limit orders waiting in 23 pairs.

[Gabriel]

thanks michael....

[Mark Aiyadurai]

I listened to Tony Cherniawski on the Tuesday show after the market close. Tony indicated that his charts show a big move down in the next week or two in the Dow -- well over a 2000 point drop to 5360 from Tuesday's close and his chart pivot point of 8000+. This will likely follow the US election. This is a huge move down. Arch Crawford on the same show following Tony was not sure and leaned towards a bullish rally based on astrology. I would appreciate your reactions Michael to these signals from these two market watchers that project likely different moves in the DJIA.in the very short term.

Thank you,

Mark

[Robert Bernard]

Man, if I had all those answers I'd certainly be rich. I'm short in Gold as well. I started off long and have changed the trade to a bearish diagonal spread, using calls. I plan to keep selling premium until gold decides to turn around.

I follow the EUR/USD pair. Lately the SPX and DOW have followed this currency pair in lockstep. As the dollar gets stronger SPX goes down. And so does gold. I keep this currency pair chart open along side the SPX all day. As the currency pair goes down, SPX goes down, and gold goes down.

Right now the dollar seems to be winning a beauty contest by virtue of the fact that it is the least ugly. You'd certainly think that with all the money we're printing that the dollar would tank. But it hasn't. Long term I think it will, but until this market shakes out one way or the other, I'll stay short in gold.

But I'm going with your assumption that gold will get stronger if the DOW goes up, based on the dollar getting weaker. That's the way it has traded lately, but disconnects have occurred before. If I had to guess, a market rally will occur along with a strong decline in the dollar, assuming they continue to move together. It might be best to wait until this thing shakes itself out. We could be heading down huge from here, or the next wave up (for Elliott Wave types) has already started. Above 9750 on the DOW confirms the up move for me. But then again I've been wrong on a regular basis lately.

If they cut interest rates on the Euro unilaterally, I'll get short in a hurry. This would strengthen the dollar (I would think), and send the SPX to the cellar.

If you do come up with the CORRECT answer, please let me know. Since you addressed your message to 'All', I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in.

[Michael Yorba]

I posted some charts in responce to your Questions. Gold , SPX, USD, EUR/USD.
This is not advice. Just my trading cycles and price projections.

[Robert Bernard]

I'm still new. Where do I find the charts?

Thanks,
Bob

[Michael Yorba]

Click on Members on the Social Network page then click on my picture and scrol down once the page changes to my page.

[Michael Yorba]

I posted some charts today for you.